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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."