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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.